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![MT VERNON, OH - NOVEMBER 06: Ohio Senate nominee JD Vance talks to supporters during a campaign stop at the Woodward Opera House on November 6, 2022 in Mount Vernon, Ohio. Knox County, where Mount Vernon is located, recorded 71% of votes for then-President Donald Trump in the 2020 general election. Vance, a Republican who has been endorsed by Trump, and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) are in a tight race heading into the general election on November 8. (Photo by Andrew Spear/Getty Images)](https://c3.oann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/GettyImages-1244565718-800x534.jpg)
OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 3:20 PM PT – Monday, November 7, 2022
For the first time, Senate candidate J.D. Vance takes a commanding lead over Democrat representative Tim Ryan.
The latest Trafalgar Group survey shows Vance with nearly 54% support among likely voters. Ryan (D-Ohio) holds just over 43% support.
![](https://c3.oann.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screenshot-2022-11-07-150844-800x448.png)
The two candidates are running for the vacant seat left by retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman.
The race is ranked as a toss-up and could be decided by the 2.5% of voters who are unsure of who to cast their vote for on Tuesday.
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