OAN’s James Meyers
3:30 PM – Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Former President Donald Trump has a 2-in-3 chance of winning the presidential election in November, according to The Economist’s election forecast model launched on Wednesday.
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The model currently predicts that Trump has a 66-in-100 chance of winning, while President Joe Biden has a 33-in-100 chance of winning.
The results are similar to a forecast model from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill released last month.
In that model’s most recent update, Trump holds a 56-in-100 chance of winning the presidency, while Biden has a 44-in-100 chance.
In mid-June 2020, the same model gave Biden an 83% chance of winning the White House.
“Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” The Economist said.
Additionally, The Economist model on Tuesday showed Trump winning 296 Electoral College votes with Biden receiving 242. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency.
The Economist says the election will be determined by six states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They combine for 77 electoral votes.
Trump won five of the six states in the 2016 election and Biden won all six states in 2020.
The Economist forecast also ranked the important states to each major party candidate.
Meanwhile, Michigan is considered the most important state for Biden to win re-election. If he does not win the Great Lakes State his chances fall to 5-in-100.
“If one candidate wins Michigan, he is likely ahead in Wisconsin, too,” The Economist said.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the next most important for Biden, whose overall chances fall to 7-in-100 without Pennsylvania and 9-in-100 without Wisconsin.
As for Trump, Pennsylvania has been determined the most important state for him to take back the White House.
However, the model still gives him a 21-in-100 chance of winning the election without the Keystone State.
Meanwhile, The Economist model also shows Trump with a 45% to 44.2% edge in an average of the national polls.
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